New assessments by Professor Petri estimate that the TPP would increase Vietnam’s GDP by 8.1% in 2030 over the baseline without TPP, and increase Vietnam’s exports by 30.1% over the baseline. The TPP represents a “landmark accord” that would yield considerable economic gains for the United States and 11 other nations, boosting exports and increasing wages, according to an analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. But the TPP would not increase job creation overall, and it could force 50,000 U.S. workers each year to find new jobs, a process that might require them to pursue new training.
Those workers, mostly in low-wage manufacturing, “may experience serious transition costs including lasting wage cuts and unemployment,” economists Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer wrote. The report stated that as jobs were eliminated in traditional manufacturing, an equal number of about 50,000 new jobs would be created each year in high-tech manufacturing and service sectors as the U.S. economy undergoes structural changes.
After five and a half years of negotiations, the TPP was concluded on October 5, 2015. It is a comprehensive accord that encompasses provisions on lowering barriers to trade and investment in goods and services and also covers critical new issues such as digital trade, state-owned enterprises, intellectual property rights, regulatory coherence, labor, and environment. Like all trade pacts, the TPP elicited praise and criticism from economic interests in the United States and the other 11 participating countries: Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. Together the 12 TPP members account for nearly 40% of global GDP. For the United States, the TPP countries account for 36% of US two-way trade in goods and services.
To clarify and analyze the complicated elements of the treaty, the Peterson Institute for International Economics has undertaken an ambitious assessment of its key issues and outcomes in this volume, the first of a series of publications planned by the Institute.
The analysis in this volume demonstrates that the agreement will deliver large economic benefits to the United States and its trading partners. The agreement would establish a free trade agreement (FTA) between the United States and several new partners, including Japan and Vietnam, while upgrading existing FTAs, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
The negotiators have finished their work, and the members signed the agreement on February 4, 2016, but much remains to be done before the TPP is ratified and implemented.
These papers are intended to provide a useful reader’s guide to the TPP and contribute to a more educated public debate over its ratification by the United States and other member countries. The authors examine several major market access and sectoral issues in the TPP.
Impact on Vietnam
Economic Growth
Trade and FDI Impact
Data disclosure: The quantitative material from the TPP model developed by Peter Petri and Michael Plummer in chapter 1, including detailed results, data and methodologies for computing elements of the model, are available at asiapacifictrade.org. The process of posting the material is expected to be completed by March 15, 2016. The data underlying the analysis in chapters 3, 5 to 10 are available here[zip] and in chapters 2 and 4 here [zip].
Source: amchamvietnam.com
